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Monday, November 28, 2011

The SEC Championship Game ~ Should UGA show up?

The season started vastly different for these two teams. LSU played Oregon on neutral turf (although much closer to Baton Rouge) and beat the ranked Oregon team. Georgia also played on neutral ground (yes, much closer to Athens) against a ranked Boise State team. Georgia was not as fortunate. Boise State thumped the Dogs rather handily. Georgia went on to lose to ranked South Carolina to begin SEC play and Mark Richt was supposedly going to finish the season coaching at Siberia U.

I watched both the Boise State and South Carolina games and saw marked improvement in UGA's effort. Were it not for a couple of unfortunate ball bounces and trick plays, UGA would have likely won. The look on Steve Spurrier's face during the game would not have landed him a job on the popular deoderant commercial ~ he let a national TV audience see him sweat.

That was almost three months ago. LSU has continued their march to an undefeated season ~ 12-0. That's no slouch by anyone's standards, let alone to go unscathed through the SEC West. UGA has also gone on their impressive run of 10 straight wins, through the SEC East. Say what you want, the SEC is the most grueling college football schedule in the country. To get to the SEC Championship Game at the end is a monumental milestone for both teams.

Much has been said about a possible LSU - Alabama rematch for the National Championship. I have an opinion about that, however not to be shared in this space. Since LSU and UGA have not met on the football field in a couple of years, I did some research on their 2011 seasons. Their schedules included at least six common teams. LSU and UGA won all six of those games. Since teams can (and should) improve throughout the season, I wanted to choose games that were relatively close to one another to compare. I chose the Mississippi State and Auburn games.

Without boring you with all the specific numbers (go to ESPN.com and look them up yourself if you're that interested), I noticed these games were remarkably similar.

For example, against Mississippi State, Georgia had 20 first downs while LSU had 21. Incidentally, both allowed MSU 13. LSU amassed 361 total yards to UGA's 315. The time of possession was within three minutes of each other. Final scores? LSU won 19-6 while UGA won 24-10.

In the Auburn game, UGA had 30 first downs, holding Auburn to only 9. In that category, LSU had 23 and Auburn had 18. Total yards ~ Auburn racked up 195 against UGA's defense, while gaining 248 against LSU. Incidentally, LSU looked strong against that Auburn defense, gaining 393 yards! But hold on to your hat, Lee Corso . . . UGA rolled up 528 yards against that Auburn defense! The possession time for LSU and Auburn were within 1:10 of each other. Georgia's offense stayed on the field almost 41 of their 60 minute game. The final scores were almost identical. LSU 45-10; UGA 45-7.

All things considered, LSU may have a better team on paper. LSU may win the game, we don't know yet. But that's why they play 'em. And so, to our friends at ESPN who so aptly predict college football games so well during this time of year, NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND!! I wouldn't be so quick to write off a strong showing by the Georgia Bulldogs this weekend in Atlanta. Win, lose, or draw, I think it will be a completely different team's showing than what the Nation saw in the opening week against Boise State.

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